21 May 13:00-14:30 CEST

AMOC Shifts: Scientific Insights & Policy Implications

Tipping points in the climate system, such as a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), pose serious global risks—yet they remain largely absent from national security risk assessments. This discussion will explore why these critical thresholds are being overlooked, the consequences of inaction, and what policy options could help close this dangerous gap.

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP’s Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar exploring the latest scientific insights on AMOC tipping points and their profound policy implications. This discussion will bring together experts to examine how science and policy can work together to address these emerging risks and enhance global preparedness.

Presentations

  • Maya Ben-Yami (Technical University of Munich) - Impacts from AMOC tipping
  • Laurie Laybourn-Langton (the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI) ) A fateful policy blind spot? Atlantic tipping and security
  • Q&A/ Discussion 

Moderated by Annika Hoegner (IIASA & PIK)

The recording will be provided below:

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Speakers

Laurie Laybourn-Langton
the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI)

Laurie Laybourn is executive director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), a think and do tank that helps develop capabilities for securing a better world even as the environmental crisis escalates. He is an associate fellow at Chatham House, a visiting fellow at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, and an associate fellow at the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). Laurie is also an advisor to the UK Climate Change Committee and the Adelphi think tank, as well as a trustee of the New Economics Foundation (NEF).

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Maya Ben-Yami
Technical University of Munich

Maya Ben-Yami is a doctoral researcher in the CriticalEarth H2020 Innovative Training Network, working at the Technical University of Munich and the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact research. Her work focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), using a combination of real-world and model data to understand this complex system. In particular, she investigates the impacts of a potential AMOC collapse on the global climate, and works to find robust early warning signals for a future AMOC tipping.

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Annika Hoegner
(Moderator) IIASA & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Annika has worked on tipping risk assessments for different emissions scenarios and the data driven analysis of tipping interactions. She is currently a researcher at the Integrated Climate Impacts working group at IIASA. 

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.